SMM, February 27:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 3,381 yuan/mt, up 51 yuan/mt WoW. Specifically, prices in Shandong were reported at 3,340-3,420 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt WoW; Henan at 3,360-3,400 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi at 3,320-3,380 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi at 3,360-3,420 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Guizhou at 3,370-3,470 yuan/mt, flat WoW; and Bayuquan at 4,210-4,290 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of February 27, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $485/mt, with ocean freight rates at $19.75/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price hovered around 7.29, translating to an external selling price of approximately 4,236 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 855 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remained closed. Two new overseas spot alumina transactions were recorded this week:
1) On February 17, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $513/mt FOB Kendawangan, Indonesia, for March shipment;
2) On February 20, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $485/mt FOB Bunbury, Western Australia, for April shipment.
This week, overseas spot alumina prices further declined, and the domestic alumina export window remained largely closed.
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate for alumina decreased by 1.43 percentage points WoW to 84.84%, mainly due to increased existing capacity in Guangxi. Specifically, the weekly operating rate in Shandong remained flat WoW at 92.66%; in Shanxi, it rose by 0.63 percentage points WoW to 79.00%; in Henan, it fell by 0.83 percentage points WoW to 67.62%; and in Guangxi, it dropped by 5.69 percentage points WoW to 88.26%. During the period, spot alumina transactions were sluggish, and spot alumina prices stabilized after declining, with buyers and sellers entering a state of negotiation. This week, 13,000 mt of alumina was transacted in Guizhou, including 5,000 mt at 3,360 yuan/mt and 3,000 mt at 3,465 yuan/mt. In Henan, 10,000 mt of alumina was transacted at 3,400 yuan/mt.
Overall:
Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized after declining, primarily due to increased demand for alumina exports and transfer to delivery warehouse, which supported alumina prices. In the short term, localized spot alumina prices have rebounded slightly. However, overseas alumina prices have declined, and the export window remains largely closed. Transfer to delivery warehouse cannot provide sustained demand, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to be gradually commissioned. In the medium and long term, spot alumina prices are still under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention is needed on alumina export profitability and bauxite price changes.
